Early Morning Reid: Macro Strategy

Research evidence excerpt

Early Morning Reid: Macro Strategy

6 July 2026

Early Morning Reid

(today), industrial production (tomorrow) and trade (Thursday) are worth

tracking. German reforms in recent weeks have offered some renewed optimism

that we will finally see the benefits of the huge fiscal spending and reform agenda

after scepticism had been building. Geopolitically, the NATO summit (Tuesday–

Wednesday) will also be in focus, with Mr Trump in attendance, and could

generate plenty of headlines.

In terms of other data and events, today sees ISM services (Monday) which

follows the recent weakness in manufacturing, where our economists expect a

modest improvement. Most of the other data in the US is second tier but includes

existing home sales on Thursday. Outside of the US, the BoE’s financial stability

report (tomorrow) will be interesting, while inflation prints from Sweden

(Wednesday) and Denmark and Norway (Friday) deserve a glance. In Japan, the

data flow includes labour cash earnings and household spending (tomorrow), the

Economy Watchers survey (Wednesday) and PPI (Friday). Elsewhere, we will see

the RBNZ policy decision (Wednesday), where our economists expect a rate hike,

and Canada’s labour market report (Friday).

Outside of data, as France edges towards the crucial 2027 presidential election,

our economists' latest Focus Europe report here from Yacine Rouimi examines

whether the Rassemblement National (RN) is now closer to power than ever

before. With a key court ruling on Marine Le Pen's eligibility due tomorrow, the

report explores the party's path to the Élysée, the prospects for a parliamentary

majority, and the internal tensions between Le Pen's traditional base and Jordan

Bardella's more market-friendly wing. This is the first in a three-part series looking