What‘s the status of European defence on the eve of the NATO summit?

Research evidence excerpt

What‘s the status of European defence on the eve of the NATO summit?

Deutsche Bank

Research

Europe Economics Date

6 July 2026

Focus Europe

What's the status of European defence

on the eve of the NATO summit?

Peter Sidorov, CFA

The upcoming NATO summit on 7-8 July is set to advance a "NATO 3.0" agenda,

Senior Economist

aiming for a unifying message of a "stronger Europe in a stronger NATO". The

backdrop to the summit has been less contentious than last year but Europe's Clemente Delucia

security challenges remain elevated, from ongoing Transatlantic frictions to the Senior Economist

continued threat from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Marion Muehlberger

European defence spending is ramping up. The ambitious 3.5% of GDP core Mark Wall

defence spending target by 2035 seems unlikely to be reached by most countries Chief Economist

if current levels of perceived security threats persist, but we see spending for the six

Yacine Rouimi

largest European economies likely reaching a GDP-weighted average of 2.8% by

2029, up from 1.7% in 2022 and 2.3% last year. This 2029 figure is slightly lower than

our estimate this time last year, reflecting more defined, and in some cases Sanjay Raja

constrained, budgetary paths. Chief UK Economist

Ursula Walther

A three-speed approach to defence spending across Europe is solidifying, shaped Research Associate

by threat perception and fiscal space. At the top are those already close to the 3.5% Maria Contreras

target or on course to reach it by 2030 (including Germany). In the middle, France Economist

and the UK, who have led Europe's defence capabilities historically, are set to move

Kuhumita Bhattacharya

into the 2.5-3% range this decade but are limited by fiscal constraints. A third group,

Research Associate