Global Chemicals Weekly

Research evidence excerpt

Global Chemicals Weekly

Deutsche Bank

Research

Global Industry Date

Chemicals Global Chemicals 3 July 2026

Weekly

News, views and valuation

Virginie Boucher-Ferte

Bayer (BAYGn.DE, BUY) Research Analyst

Last week's Supreme Court ruling is pivotal to Bayer's multi-pronged approach to +33-1-4495-5934

draw a line under its glyphosate liability. The ruling has been one of the two key

pillars Bayer has been focusing on to contain its glyphosate litigation, alongside Tristan Lamotte

Research Analyst the class settlement. This ruling makes the settlement considerably more likely to +44-20-754-71862

hold. All in all, we believe it should effectively cap the glyphosate exposure within

existing provisions. With this major overhang lifting, the focus should start David Begleiter

shifting to the fundamentals: a compelling growth story in both Crop & Pharma, Research Analyst

+1-212-250-5473 further bolstered by mid-term portfolio optionality likely to unlock substantial

value. The stock trades at 7.6x 27E EV/EBITDA and 9.2x 27E P/E, materially Rajiv Dalal

below the Crop & Pharma peers. We have upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy Research Associate

with a new €60 TP.

Saurabh Mehndiratta

After four years of gradual decline, we expect EBITDA to return to growth in ‘27, Research Associate

as the Pharma OSG & EBITDA margin improve, supported by the launch of new

potential blockbusters while the Xarelto patent expiry should be largely digested.

We note the company’s target (msd growth+ from 2027) is in line with the

European Pharma large caps. Meanwhile, Crop EBITDA should benefit from cost-

cutting and the launch of multiple growth & margin accretive products. For the

group, we forecast a 9% EBITDA CAGR in 27-29 with the margin up 320bps. We