Swinging to surplus

Research evidence excerpt

Swinging to surplus

6 July 2026

Hsueh On Oil

Figure 1: Oil price forecasts

Source: Deutsche Bank Research; Figures are period averages; Changes versus forecasts published with World Outlook, 1 Jun 2026

The shipping recovery

The retracement in oil prices is most directly tied to rising tanker transits through

the Strait of Hormuz, though this is only one half of the story. On 25 Jun, the

highest 7-day average rate of liquids exports was seen at 13.9 mmb/d, or 70% of

the pre-conflict rate, Figure 2. This is already above the ~65% rate that could

enable normalization of supply, if we assume continued pipeline diversions. Early

July shipments have fallen somewhat, and this could be either because

underlying production is lagging, or that future revisions to the shipping data

reveal so-far unknown vessel transits. There was a particularly big sequence of

upward revisions in late June, Figure 3.

The rate of inbound (westbound) tanker transits on ballast voyages has lagged

but reached a 7-day average of 13.3 mmb/d on 2 July, Figure 4. The rate of

inbound tanker transits can be viewed as a firmer indication of shippers’

confidence (and supply availability), since it requires time for loading and

bunkering before a return trip can be made. A spot-check of recent tanker

movements indicates that shippers are achieving a 4 to 7-day turnaround

between entering and exiting the Gulf.

The logical base case should be that a normalization of shipping continues, but

the lack of common agreement on the operation of the Strait of Hormuz poses a

risk case of returning to the USD 80’s/bbl (Brent) on a resumed closure. The 60-

day negotiating period for the US and Iran began on 19 June and ends on 17

August, according to CNN.1 There remains a large gap between the US and Iran