Europe-5 June Auto Sales: Robust market, most EU OEMs keep losing share

Research evidence excerpt

Europe-5 June Auto Sales: Robust market, most EU OEMs keep losing share

Update

July 6, 2026 10:59 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E., Madrid Branch+MAutos & Shared Mobility | Europe Javier Martinez de Olcoz Cerdan

Equity Analyst

Europe-5 June Auto Sales: Javier.Martinez.Olcoz@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ +34 9141-81289

Shaqeal A Kirunda

Equity AnalystRobust market, most EU OEMs Shaqeal.Kirunda@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0736

Matias Rodriguez Florez-Estrada

Research Associatekeep losing share

Matias.Rodriguez@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1091

June volume up +4% (adjusted), driven by Germany, all markets Autos & Shared Mobility

Europe

growing. Stellantis, VW, Porsche and MBG share down again, Industry View In-Line

while BMW keeps gaining share YoY/MoM. Starting this month,

Exhibit 9 : EU-5 MS Tracker vs Consensus

we benchmark the tracker data with consensus and include a

estimates

new section zooming in on China OEMs. MS Tracker 2Q26e 2026e

Europe-5 Jun-26 Last 3M YTD Consensus Consensus

BMW 14% 9% 7% 2% 2%

Key Takeaways MBGPorsche -2%2% -6%2% -6%2% -11%4% -5%2%

VW 9% 4% 3% -19% 1%

Europe 5 accelerating: June +12% YoY, YTD +7%, China OEMs keep gaining share. Stellantis 4% 2% 4% 3% 4%

Renault 4% 1% -3% 2% 0%

Premium now gaining share, EV penetration continue rising, LCVs back to growth. JLR -13% -2% -4% 12% 3%

EU Share winners YoY: BMW. Losing share: Stellantis > Renault > VW group > Source: L ocal Auto Association, Visible Alpha, Morgan Stanley Research

estimates. Note: in this table "Consensus" refers to full Europe, while MS

MBG > Porsche. tracker only include Germany, UK, France, Italy, Spain auto sales

2Q26 data vs Consensus: above BMW, VW, Porsche. Below: MBG, Renault,

Exhibit 10 : Auto sales in European top 5

Stellantis.