Ivor Goy: Key Forecasts: Next 12-Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls

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Ivor Goy: Key Forecasts: Next 12-Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls

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July 6, 2026 09:21 PM GMTMMorgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts

Next 12-Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls Next 12-Months Snapshot

Morgan Stanley Strategists and Economists are competing in the Extel Fixed Income Research Poll. If investors have found In the US, we expect that the deceleration in inflation in the next several prints

our work useful, this survey matters to us and we’d really appreciate their support. Investors can go to Extel | Voting Help to will support purchasing power and real consumption growth. With the

vote/request a ballot. Thank you! continued firmness in real investment spending growth, real growth remains

The economic outlook remains constructive. With oil prices lower, hiring slowing in the US, and inflation risks moderating, supported in 2H26 in the US. At a global level, the growth impulse is increasingly

we think that the Fed has room to remain patient. The July CPI will be important, with lower energy prices set to weigh on capex- and manufacturing-led, with Asia at the center. 2Q growth momentum

headline inflation and core goods prices providing a key test of whether tariff pass-through has largely ended. In the Euro in the region is holding up better than expected, supported by AI demand and

a broader capex cycle tied to energy security, defense spending, and supply-

area, inflation has surprised to the downside, but we still expect core inflation to remain broadly sideways at 2.4%Y by end-

chain reconfiguration. Chinese growth remains K-shaped, with industrial and

2026 before easing in 2027 as wage growth moderates. While further evidence is needed on the indirect effects of higher