Risks Around Our Macro Forecasts

Research evidence excerpt

Risks Around Our Macro Forecasts

Update

July 6, 2026 04:09 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.+MECB Surveys | Europe Jens Eisenschmidt

Chief Europe Economist

Risks Around Our Macro Jens.Eisenschmidt@morganstanley.comJean-Francois Ouvrard +49 69-21662817

Deputy Chief European Economist

Jean-Francois.Ouvrard@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662813

Forecasts Gabriela Silova

Economist

Gabriela.Silova@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662832

We are among the banks surveyed by the ECB in its Survey of

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Professional Forecasters (SPF) and Survey of Monetary Analysts Chiara Zangarelli

(SMA). Below, we share our take on risks around the EconomistChiara.Zangarelli@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3644

macroeconomic and monetary outlook. Skander Garchi Casal

Inflation: The June inflation print reconfirmed that the peak is most likely behind us Skander.Garchi.Casal@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0034

(see latest Inflation Watch). Our updated path for EA inflation takes on board Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.+

current market pricing for oil and natural gas. Energy inflation is likely to move Claire A Thuerwaechter

down in the next months and then turn negative in March-27. We expect headline to Claire.Thuerwaechter@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662842

follow, down to 2.6%Y in Dec-26 and then below 2% from 2Q27 onwards. We

expect it to stand at 2.6%Y on average in 2026 and 1.9%Y in 2027. Meanwhile, we Luca Salford

expect core to move sideways, still at 2.4%Y in Dec-26. We expect goods inflation to Strategist

Luca.Salford@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1337

strengthen on the back of some transmission of higher energy costs. Indirect

Maria Chiara Russo

impacts from energy prices are also likely to support services inflation in the Strategist

summer (mostly airfares).