Capex Monitor: Tracking Macro and Micro Indicators for QE Jun-26

Research evidence excerpt

Capex Monitor: Tracking Macro and Micro Indicators for QE Jun-26

Idea

July 6, 2026 12:42 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+MIndia Economics | Asia Pacific Upasana Chachra

Chief India Economist

Capex Monitor: Tracking Macro Upasana.Chachra@morganstanley.comBani Gambhir +91 22 6118-2246

Economist

Bani.Gambhir@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-3027

and Micro Indicators for QE Jun- Shreya Singh

Shreya.Singh@morganstanley.com +91 22 6995-1521

Both new and ongoing investments picked up in QE Jun-26, even

as sector-wide trends remained heterogenous. We expect public

sector capex to adhere to its F27BE, while private capex

gradually picks up pace over the coming quarters to support a

buoyant capex upcycle.

• Macroeconomic trends: Recent high-frequency growth data for June Related Research:

maintained momentum, despite elevated global uncertainty, indicating • India Industrials & Utilities: India's Industrial

limited supply-side impact of the conflict. Easing global commodity prices Capex Cycle (31 May 2026)

and supply-chain normalisation should support improving strength in both • India Economics: Capex Monitor: Tracking Macro

domestic and external demand. & Micro Indicators (#20) (10 Apr 2026)

• Both new and ongoing investments improved sequentially: Projects under • India Economics: Capex Monitor: Tracking Macro

implementation (compiled by CMIE) improved sequentially, led by a broad- & Micro Indicators (#19) (5 Jan 2026)

based uptick across the public and private sectors, even as growth softened

in YoY terms in QE Jun-26, driven by a moderation in private sector. In

contrast, the uptick in new investments, both in YoY and sequential terms,

was driven by improving strength in private sector projects, whilst public

sector declined.