World Cup: Ticketing Data Check

Research evidence excerpt

World Cup: Ticketing Data Check

Idea

July 6, 2026 12:36 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMMedia & Entertainment | North America Cameron Mansson-Perrone

Equity Analyst

World Cup: Ticketing Data Cameron.Mansson-Perrone@morganstanley.comSean Diffley, CFA +1 212 761-7079

Sean.DIFFLEY@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-5868

Check

Media & Entertainment

North America

As the 2026 FIFA World Cup continues through the Round of 16, Industry View In-Line

we examine YTD data across interest, app engagement, and

purchase activity in order to gauge the potential uplift for

ticketing resale platforms. Our model suggests a LSD% YoY

uplift in base case and HSD% uplift in bull case.

Key Takeaways

Continue to see EW-rated STUB and SEAT shares as well positioned to benefit

from World Cup resale ticket activity this year.

Materiality lower for OW LYV shares given resale ticketing remains a relatively

modest low-teen percentage of transacted value on Ticketmaster.

We examine three types of data: (1) Google Trends; (2) app download and

engagement; and (3) credit card purchasing data.

The World Cup could prove a material tailwind to the resale ticketing industry:

We continue to see the tournament driving a 2-4% tailwind to growth across

platforms (EWs STUB and SEAT) in the base case, and a 7-9% tailwind in the bull

case ( Exhibit 1 ). According to FIFA, 4.6mm fans attended in the opening round (see

here), 4-5% above our 4.4mm ticket sale estimate. Similar performance in knockout

rounds, and a USMNT that remains in contention, could help support both

continued robust attendance levels and high ticket prices - both positives for resale

platforms.

Please reach out for a copy of our World Cup ticketing model. See our StubHub

initiation "To Tame a Land?" from earlier this year for a more comprehensive