Holcim: Valuation Mispricing Creates Compelling Asymmetry

Research evidence excerpt

Holcim: Valuation Mispricing Creates Compelling Asymmetry

6 July 2026

Pujarini Ghosh, CFA

+44 20 7676 6807

European Construction & Building Materials pujarini.ghosh@bernsteinsg.com

Victor AcitoresHolcim Ltd

+34 915 893 901

Rating victor.acitores@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Tobias Fromme

+44 20 7676 6875

Price Target tobias.fromme@bernsteinsg.com

HOLN.SW 90.00 CHF Specialist Sales

Sara Bellenda

+44 20 7762 1867

sara.bellenda@bernsteinsg.com

In our Holcim series so far, we have analyzed different expectations for European pricing

Close Date 3 Jul 2026

power and the ETS reform, LatAm valuation and light side acquisition synergies. While the

HOLN.SW Close Price (CHF) 77.02

market remains focused on ETS uncertainty and geopolitical risks, the current share price

Price Target (CHF) 90.00

implies a scenario close to our bear case, assuming minimal European pricing, little value for

Upside/(Downside) 17%

the LatAm business and no meaningful contribution from light-side synergies. In this report,

52-Week Range 80.60/57.50

we bring together our proprietary scenario analysis across these three variables and show that

EDME 1,622.79

downside is largely reflected in the stock, while several pathways exist for meaningful rerating.

FYE Dec

The market is pricing a far more pessimistic outcome than our base case. European Div Yield 2.2%

pricing power remains the key swing factor. The market appears to be assuming close to Market Cap (CHF) (M) 43,661

no pricing power in Europe, while our base case assumes 3–3.5% pricing and our blue- EV (CHF) (M) 47,653

sky scenario assumes ~5%, which provides a CHF 10 upside to our base case PT. Any ETS Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

outcome better than current expectations should support meaningful earnings and valuation Absolute (%) 1.4 1.3 1.4 32.2

upside.