ASML: High-NA EUV cost deep dive - lifting PT to €2300 on rising litho intensity

Research evidence excerpt

ASML: High-NA EUV cost deep dive - lifting PT to €2300 on rising litho intensity

6 July 2026

Global Semis

ASML: High-NA EUV cost deep dive - lifting PT to €2300 on rising

litho intensity

HNA EUV will likely be adopted first in DRAM than for logic due to lower cost of David Dai, CFA

+852 2918 5704 exposure for DRAM. A common concern from investors is that HNA is too expensive (as

david.dai@bernsteinsg.com TSMC said so) and won’t be adopted anytime soon. However, what’s rarely discussed is

the big difference between DRAM and logic: DRAM die size is much smaller than logic, and

Mark Li hence only uses 1 mask, while logic mostly needs 2 masks due to larger die size (stitching).

+852 2123 2645

mark.li@bernsteinsg.com The mask changing slows down throughput by 23% (135WpH vs. 175WpH), and the cost

of HNA exposure for DRAM is cheaper and easier to justify. So we believe DRAM will likely

Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. adopt HNA in 2027 in 1d, when LNA EUV double patterning is needed, earlier than logic.

+1 213 559 5917

stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Logic adoption of HNA is also in sight. The high cost of HNA exposure is largely

associated to the low tool availability of 80-85%, while LNA is close to 95%. However,

Carmine Milano, CFA HNA tool availability is improving faster, and is targeted to reach ~95% by 2030. WpH is +44 20 7762 1857

carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com also expected to increase from 135 to 175 even with 2 masks. While the litho equipment

cost of HNA exposure is currently ~3x LNA for logic, the gap will narrow to ~2x by 2030.

Juho Hwang Considering other costs and complexity of double patterning, it’s justifiable for logic to

+81 3 6777 6980 migrate to HNA before that. We expect Intel to be the first to adopt HNA in 2028, while juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com