ASML Q2 2026: Triple happiness; Lifting PT to €2500

Research evidence excerpt

ASML Q2 2026: Triple happiness; Lifting PT to €2500

David Dai, CFA +852 2918 5704 david.dai@bernsteinsg.com 16 July 2026

DETAILS

We updated our ASML, EUV and DUV models by incorporating management's comments in Q2 2026 earnings. Models

can be downloaded here (ASML.NA / ASML Holding NV; EUV Model; DUV Model).

Q2 RESULTS SUMMARY

Q2 2026 revenue came in well above consensus and guidance at EUR 9.3Bn, growing 6% sequentially driven by

strong EUV sales and stronger than expected Installed Base Management. Margins were also solid, with GM at 54.0%,

above Street expectations of 52.0%, and OpM at 37.1% versus Cons at 34.7%. Diluted EPS came in at EUR 7.58,

around 11% above Street.

• Q2 topline reached EUR 9.3Bn, up 6% sequentially, above consensus of EUR 8.8Bn and Bernstein at EUR 8.9Bn. Net

system sales reached EUR 6.6Bn, with the upside driven by EUV and a stronger than expected Installed Base Management

business (Exhibit 1, Exhibit 2).

• EUV system sales reached EUR 3.8Bn, down 10% sequentially but up 39% YoY. ASML recognized 16 EUV machines,

of which 1 was HNA. The sequential decline was mainly driven by lower ASPs due to a weaker product mix, with more

3600D systems sold. DUV and M&I system sales reached EUR 2.8Bn, with ASML also highlighting increased shipments of

dry DUV systems and strong traction in optical and e-beam metrology products across key customers (Exhibit 3).

• Installed Base Management sales came in at EUR 2.8Bn, almost EUR 300Mn above guidance, driven primarily by

additional upgrade business thanks to strong customer demand for productivity enhancements.

• Looking at the geographic and end-market breakdown, Q2 system sales at EUR 6.6Bn were almost equally split between

Logic at 51% and Memory at 49%.