Australia Gaming: NSW Labor scales back proposal to remove pokies

Research evidence excerpt

Australia Gaming: NSW Labor scales back proposal to remove pokies

ate appreciation could translate into lower reported earnings; 3) D&D and new product risk. Newly

developed game titles may not succeed commercially; 4) General economic risk. A deterioration in macroeconomic conditions

could impact Aristocrat’s end customers; and 5) Regulatory and political risk. Delays in the approval or licensing of games and

platforms/hardware could impact Aristocrat’s earnings.

The upside risks to achieving our target price are as follows: 1) Decreased competition, allowing Aristocrat to capture further

market share; 2) Favourable currency movements (i.e., a depreciation of the AUD) would result in a positive translation effect; 3)

Future successful new game titles not currently captured in our operational and financial forecasts; 4) Favourable economic

conditions boosting consumer spending and customer demand; and 5) The opening of new gaming markets could expand

Aristocrat’s global addressable market.

Positive or adverse developments in these risk factors could cause the share price to remain above or fall below our target price.

Light & Wonder Inc

(LNW.AX; A$106.63; 1; 03 Jul 26; 16:00)

Valuation

Our spot valuation for Light & Wonder is A$133 per share. Our 12-month target price is A$149.00 per share. Our target price is

based on the roll-forward of our valuation at the cost of equity of 11.7% less the next 12 months of dividends to be paid. Our

valuation is derived through a blended average of our: 1) DCF valuation of A$98.84 per share; 2) sum-of-the-parts valuation at

A$121.93 per share, and 3) PE relative valuation of A$178.28.

Our 10-year DCF valuation for Light & Wonder is based on a WACC of 10.42%, equity beta of 1.10, and a nominal terminal growth

rate of 2.0%.