Aristocrat Leisure (ALL.AX): Investor day largely consistent with market expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL.AX): Investor day largely consistent with market expectations

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01 Jul 2026 07:25:56 ET │ 13 pages

Aristocrat Leisure (ALL.AX)

Investor day largely consistent with market expectations

CITI'S TAKE

We viewed the aspirations/targets presented today as largely consistent

with VA consensus expectations. We believe Aristocrat is regaining investor

interest given better operating momentum and a more favourable currency. Buy

Our earnings forecasts are unchanged. We retain our Buy rating and $61.00 Price (01 Jul 26 16:00) A$59.98

target price.

Target price A$61.00

US$1 billion target reiterated but at what margin? — Aristocrat reiterated its US$1 Expected share price return 1.7%

billion Interactive revenue target for FY29 compared to VA consensus and Citi’s Expected dividend yield 1.7%

~US$0.9 billion forecast. The incremental revenue from the FY25 base is expected Expected total return 3.4%

to be driven by content scaling (US$250-350 million), iLottery expansion (US$150–

250 million), and Platforms & adjacencies (US$50–100 million). This should drive Market Cap A$36,096M

margin gains from mix alone given iLottery and Content margins are much higher US$25,314M

than Platforms. When the initial target was made, management flagged it should

reach margins between Gaming (54%) and Pixel United (32% incl. Plarium). This

guidance no longer applies with Product Madness (the remaining part of Pixel post

the Plarium sale) now much higher at ~47% in FY26e. We interpret that management Price Performance

is not comfortable guiding to this level but that it is consistent with the FY29e

(RIC: ALL.AX, BB: ALL AU)Interactive EBITA margin forecasts of VA consensus (37%).

North American gaming growth greater than GGR targeted — Aristocrat is seeking