The Cost of Compute: Global Portfolio Manager‘s Digest

Research evidence excerpt

The Cost of Compute: Global Portfolio Manager‘s Digest

Cross Asset Research

5 July 2026

Global Portfolio Manager's Digest

The Cost of Compute SIGNATURE

We provide context and perspective on research across

regions and asset classes. This week, we examine the upward

pressure on PCE inflation driven by AI-related categories, take Equity Product Management Group

stock of the Korean government's investment plans, and Terence+ 1 212 526Malone*7578

terence.malone@barclays.comreview the Supreme Court's ruling on Fed independence.

BCI, US

• PCE Inflation and AI: AI-related categories have been a meaningful source of upward Rob Bate*

+44 (0)20 7773 3576

pressure in PCE inflation recently, led by electricity and computer software & accessories—the

rob.bate@barclays.com

category that shows the clearest imprint of the explosion in memory chip prices. We estimate Barclays, UK

that these categories have cumulatively added about 25bp to annual headline and 20bp to

annual core PCE price inflation in recent months. To that end, robust data-center demand, FICC Product Management Group

constrained supply, and longer-dated purchasing agreements are expected to support Jennifer Cardilli*

memory prices in the near term, with rising costs filtering into PCs and other hardware. +1 212 526 8351

jennifer.cardilli@barclays.com However, in our view, the trajectory is likely to shift from sharp step-ups toward a more

measured and differentiated trend across product categories. The Fed may find it difficult to

fully discount AI-related inflation, as these categories are pushing near-term core PCE risks Jill Nentwig*

higher. However, there could be second-order effects based on how the Fed interprets the + 1 212 526 5129

jillian.nentwig@barclays.com PCE price data.