Ship Order tracker: Half time. A strong start to 1H26, but debate on Container / Tanker order durability into 2H and 2027

Research evidence excerpt

Ship Order tracker: Half time. A strong start to 1H26, but debate on Container / Tanker order durability into 2H and 2027

Idea

July 6, 2026 04:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MCapital Goods | Europe Sara Chemello

Research Associate

Ship Order tracker: Half time. A Sara.Chemello@morganstanley.comMax R Yates +44 20 7425-2931

Equity Analyst

Max.Yates@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1917

strong start to 1H26, but debate

Capital Goods

Europe

Industry View In-Lineon Container / Tanker order

durability into 2H and 2027

New ship orders had a strong start to 1H26, annualizing at levels

comfortably above long-run averages. Containers and Tankers

are the stand-out segments, with scope for Alfa Laval (EW) to

surprise on orders in the next 6mths. We see a less favourable

set up for Wartsila (UW) across its divisions.

Key Takeaways

A solid start in 1H26 Ship orders, +35% YOY. Orders are annualizing at ~3,000

ships for 2026, above the long-run average of 2,479 ships, and 2025 at 2,568.

The 1H26 strength has been driven by: 1) Product Tankers (after a sharp rise in

tanker rates), and 2) Containerships (third strong year), 3) Gas carriers.

Looking at ship orders backlog vs fleet, we think Container and Tanker orders will

soften into 2027. Overall, we expect Ship orders to decline in 2027 vs 2026.

Alfa Laval (EW). Strength in Tankers is supportive. We see upside risk to Marine

order consensus, and see ~SEK 6bn of quarterly Marine orders possible by 3Q26.

Wartsila (UW). Cruise orders softer in 1H26, and Marine AM has slowed. Also, risk

of increased competition in its DC Energy solutions.

Exhibit 1: Overall 1,481 vessels were ordered in 1H26, up 35% from last year.

This was driven by product tankers (after a sharp rise in tanker rates),