Speed-to-Power and Turnkey Services Create a Differentiated Bridge Solution; Initiate at OW

Research evidence excerpt

Speed-to-Power and Turnkey Services Create a Differentiated Bridge Solution; Initiate at OW

small today with only ~$183M § = Consensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

in revenue in 2025, its unique speed-to-power solution has already boosted the

Quarterly EPS ($)

company's backlog to ~$1.3B, supporting what we estimate will be a >80% revenue 2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

CAGR between 2025-30.

Q1 (0.07) - (0.06)a - 0.13

Q2 0.04 - (0.10) - 0.16

Current backlog may just be the beginning as industry set up remains favorable. Q3 (0.06) - 0.03 - 0.21

The industry setup is increasingly favorable as AI driven load growth collides with Q4 (0.03) - 0.08 - 0.21

utility infrastructure timelines. US load growth is projected at ~5.7% annually from e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

2025 to 2030, representing ~43x total growth versus 2015 to 2020, with data

centers projected to represent nearly half of all US electricity demand growth from

2024 to 2030. At the same time, data center construction timelines are typically 2

to 3 years, while grid and generation infrastructure typically require 3 to 7 years.

That gap creates demand for near-term bridge power, while reliability risk and

reserve-margin pressure support backup and dispatchable capacity. Net net, ERock is

levered to 1) data center speed-to-power, 2) utility grid stability and capacity needs,

3) large C&I resiliency, 4) capital-light customer-owned deployments, and 5)

recurring services revenue over a multi-decade asset lifecycle.

We initiate coverage of ERock, Inc. (EROC) with an Overweight rating and a $21

price target (~36% upside) based on a ~24x multiple on our 2027 EBITDA