Weekly Warm-up: The Broadening Gains Steam as Semis Lose Momentum

Research evidence excerpt

Weekly Warm-up: The Broadening Gains Steam as Semis Lose Momentum

Idea

July 6, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMUS Equity Strategy | North America Michael J Wilson

Equity Strategist

Weekly Warm-up: The M.Wilson@morganstanley.comAndrew B Pauker +1 212 761-2532

Andrew.Pauker@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1330

Broadening Gains Steam as Michelle M. Weaver, CFA

Michelle.M.Weaver@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-5254

Semis Lose Momentum Diane Ding, Ph.D.

Quantitative Strategist

Qian.Ding@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6758

Our broadening thesis continues to gain momentum as Semis Nicholas Lentini, CFA

underperform. The steep fall in oil has helped to stabilize rates, EquityNick.Lentini@morganstanley.comStrategist +1 212 761-5863

which is another driver of the rotation to lagging areas of the

market. We favor Consumer Discretionary Goods, Transports,

and Biotech.

• Underperformance in Semis Is Helping to Drive the Broadening...As noted

last week, Semiconductor momentum is fading with EPS revisions breadth

for the group up against historical highs. Prior underperformance of the

Hyperscalers was likely a leading signal for the weaker price action in Semis.

The high capex / sales factor is also starting to consolidate, which may

encourage more capex discipline in the near-term. We think the Hyperscalers

have led in terms of discounting this dynamic and have already gone through

their period of underperformance. We also believe this cohort possesses

attractive optionality within the AI ecosystem: strong core businesses, the

ability to participate in/lead the agentic application layer development and

implementation, as well as an underappreciated cost cutting lever. We've

seen relative performance oscillate between the various types of AI