Moving to the Sidelines as Competition Intensifies; Downgrading to EW

Research evidence excerpt

Moving to the Sidelines as Competition Intensifies; Downgrading to EW

IdeaMCompetition also pressures expenses where we are above Consensus. We expect

intensifying competition in high growth markets like Texas to put upward pressure

on expenses across the group. This reflects increased spending on compensation to

hire / retain commercial bankers, marketing, and investments in product capabilities.

For Prosperity, we are modeling $998 mil of expenses for 2027 which is 5% above

Consensus, partly from higher core expenses, and partly as Consensus likely isn't

fully baking in acquisitions. The bank has ample capacity to fund this level of

expenses supported by its net interest margin expansion story, and we are still

modeling +340bps of Y/Y positive operating leverage in 2027.

Valuation looks inexpensive versus historical levels, but we see limited catalysts

over the next 12-18 months. Prosperity is a quality bank with a significant excess

capital position, leading deposit franchise, and strong credit quality, which we think

warrants a premium multiple versus peers over time. The shares have re-rated

significantly lower over the past several months, and now trade at 11.2x Consensus

NTM EPS, in line with peers versus its historical average premium of 1.7x. While we

would view relative valuation as attractive over a longer-term view, we see limited

catalysts over the next 12-18 months as competition continues to pressure loan

growth and expenses, which supports our Equal-weight rating on the shares. Given

the stock's current relatively low multiple and limited organic growth opportunities,

we do expect PB to deploy more of its excess capital into buybacks. We are

modeling $210 mil / $280 mil of buybacks for 2026E / 2027E, versus $214 mil / $196

mil for Consensus.