2Q26 Preview; Fundamentals Remain Strong post Recent Valuation Reset - Buy NUE

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Preview; Fundamentals Remain Strong post Recent Valuation Reset - Buy NUE

Equity Research

5 July 2026 | 6:12PM EDT

AMERICAS STEEL

2Q26 Preview; Fundamentals Remain Strong post Recent Valuation

Reset - Buy NUE

Heading into 2Q26 earnings, we expect price realization, margin rate of change and Nick Cash

+1(212)357-6372 | nick.cash@gs.com

commentary on forward pricing to be a key investor focus. Our America’s Steel Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Coverage average outperformed in 2Q26, up +19% vs. the S&P up +15%, despite

pulling back (16%) during the month of June. The pullback was largely attributable to

commodity pricing momentum slowing, weaker reported production and utilization

numbers and increasing imports coinciding with extended valuations. As a result,

valuations compressed (1.4x) on average and sit largely at average historical levels.

We view the market as pricing in significant deterioration of fundamentals, which we

believe provides investors with a compelling entry point. As a result, we highlight

Buy-rated NUE as we see a favorable risk-reward skew following the pullback. Within

this report, we provide commentary on key debates heading into 3Q26, our 2Q26

recap, and preview results and key focus points for 2Q26 results by company

(revising estimates for select stocks).

3Q26 Debate and Key Idea into 2Q26 Results

Peak pricing in 3Q26. The pricing debate has taken the spotlight in recent weeks as

HRC prices stayed flat for 12 days (ending 7/2). This comes after nearly 6 straight

months of incremental weekly price increases, which the market took as a signal that

the pricing rally could be losing momentum. Our view is that the market is likely

overreacting to this data point. While we do forecast prices to peak in 3Q26, we