Brazil Energy

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil Energy

Equity Research

5 July 2026 | 7:17PM BRT

BRAZIL ENERGY

Oil production growth: Assessing Macro and Equities implications

In this note, we leverage our Brazil O&G equity coverage and revisit our forecasts Bruno Amorim, CFA

+55(11)3371-0764 |

for Brazil’s oil production for the upcoming years, assessing implications to the bruno.amorim@gs.com

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

equities in our Global O&G coverage (Buy PBR, Shell, Galp) and to the country’s

Alberto Ramosoverall fiscal and trade balance. Key conclusions: +1(212)357-5768 |

alberto.ramos@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

n Oil production. We expect Petrobras production to exceed the mid point of its

Michele Della Vigna, CFA

guidance by 11% in 2026-28E, on average for the period. As a result, we estimate +39(02)8022-2242 |

michele.dellavigna@gs.com

Brazil oil production should grow from 3.8 mnbpd in 2025 up to 4.8 mmbpd in Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Milan

branch

2028 (+1 mnbdp). As such, Brazil will represent ~4% of global oil production in

Guilherme Costa Martins

2026-27E and should account for ~20% of non OPEC growth in 2027E. +55(11)3372-3505 | guilherme.costamartins@gs.com

n Trade balance, FX. Net Oil and products exports are poised to increase by ~70%

Quentin Marbach

in 2025-2028E, jumping from USD 28bn in 2025 up to USD 47bn by 2028 and +44(20)7774-7644 |

quentin.marbach@gs.com

accounting for 51% of Brazil’s total net exports by then (boosting the BRL/USD Goldman Sachs International

FX fair value by ~5-6% all else equal in that period). Huama Belmonte

+55(11)3371-6972 |

huama.belmonte@gs.com

n Fiscal. We estimate an increase of BRL 85bn (~USD 16bn) in the government’s Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

income from the oil sector in 2026 to BRL 277bn (USD 53 bn), or 10.6% of