INDIA LIFE INSURANCE Q1FY27 preview: Topline to improve, margins still seeing GST headwinds

Research evidence excerpt

INDIA LIFE INSURANCE Q1FY27 preview: Topline to improve, margins still seeing GST headwinds

Equity Research

6 July 2026 | 6:46AM IST

INDIA LIFE INSURANCE

Q1FY27 preview: Topline to improve, margins still seeing GST headwinds

Heading into 1QFY27 earnings, we adjust estimates across our coverage to factor in Shyam Srinivasan, CFA

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monthly numbers, updated product mix and margin assumptions. We fine-tune our shyam.srinivasan@gs.com

Goldman Sachs India SPL

APE/VNB estimates and revise our FY27E-29E EPS estimates by -6% to +5%, leading

to TP changes (-7% to +6%). We believe investors will be watching management

commentary on: (1) Savings environment trends, especially on ULIP demand given a

recovery in equity markets, (2) Non linked product dynamics including interest rate

setup, (3) Margin development given GST headwinds and revised distribution

strategies, and (4) Updates to the FY27 outlook. We remain Buy rated on HDFC Life

and SBI Life, and believe recent slight underperformance (-4% to +1% on a 3M basis

vs Nifty up +7%) due to a combination of slower growth/margin volatility provides an

opportunity to revisit these names, as we believe long-term growth drivers remain

intact.

Topline recovers in 1QFY27: The industry (Private+LIC) has grown APE by +17% yoy

in Apr+May vs. 11% growth in Mar-2026, as we note a normalization of the savings

environment in 1Q given easing in the Middle East conflict. On product mix, the 7%

recovery in Indian markets should be supportive of better ULIP demand, although

companies are trying to cap salience. Also, given hardening rates (our Econ team

expects 50bps of policy rate hikes by the RBI in 4QCY26), customers are still hesitant

to lock in Non par product IRR this early in the cycle, although we note an ease in

intensity.