THE WORLD CUP AND ECONOMICS: Better Than A Script (03 July)

Research evidence excerpt

THE WORLD CUP AND ECONOMICS: Better Than A Script (03 July)

Economics Research

3 July 2026 | 6:03AM EDT

THE WORLD CUP AND ECONOMICS

Better Than A Script (03 July)

Spain displayed their best football so far in a commanding 3-0 win against Austria. La Jan Hatzius

+1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com

Roja registered 10 shots on target while allowing none. Oyarzabal scored twice and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Pedro Porro added one, while Unai Simon, who was largely inactive throughout the Giovanni Pierdomenico

game, became the keeper with the longest clean-sheet streak in World Cup history +44(20)7051-6807giovanni.pierdomenico@gs.com|

(519 consecutive minutes between 2022 and 2026). Goldman Sachs International

Sven Jari Stehn

Portugal’s last-gasp 2–1 victory over Croatia was just better than a movie script. +44(20)7774-8061Goldman Sachs International| jari.stehn@gs.com

Croatia took the lead with Perisić in the 53rd minute but Cristiano Ronaldo equalised

from the penalty spot shortly after. Deep into added time, Gonçalo Ramos’ dramatic

header put Portugal ahead. In the final seconds, Gvardiol scored what appeared to

be a dramatic 2–2 but, after a lengthy VAR review, the goal was disallowed (after

three other goals had been disallowed previously). Portugal advances to the round of

16, where they will face Spain.

In the third game of the day, an early goal allowed the Swiss to cede possession to

Algeria and manage the lead in an organised way. Ndoye scored early in the second

half to seal the win. Switzerland advances to the round of 16, where they will face the

winner of Colombia-Ghana.

Exhibit 1 shows our expectations for today’s games. Exhibit 2 outlines the key

predictions of our model for the knockout stage. See here for more details on our