Compass Group (CPG.L): Updating estimates ahead of 3Q26 results

Research evidence excerpt

Compass Group (CPG.L): Updating estimates ahead of 3Q26 results

Equity Research

3 July 2026 | 3:26PM BST

Minor estimate changes ahead of 3Q26. We update our estimates for Compass Ben Andrews, CFA

+44(20)7774-5489 |

ahead of the company’s fiscal 3Q26 trading update (21 July). For FY26, we now ben.andrews@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

forecast organic growth of +7.2% (from +7.3% previously), with the revision

Poppy Boyd-Taylor

reflecting a moderation in pricing in 2H vs. 1H (owing to lower cost inflation than +44(20)7774-2994 | poppy.boyd-

previously modelled within the half). We continue to expect an acceleration in net taylor@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

new business to the mid-point of the 4%-5% range in 2H (including a sequential Leo Mose

improvement in 3Q vs. 1H and large mobilisations in 4Q such as the University of +44(20)7051-2439Goldman Sachs International| leo.mose@gs.com

Kentucky contract). Our LFL volume forecasts are unchanged (we had already

embedded a moderation in 2H vs. 1H, owing to CPG’s tough comps in 4Q, while

readacross from Sodexo’s 3Q26 results suggests that the industry volume

environment remains solid). We now forecast FY26 EBIT of $3.75bn (-0.3%, owing to

the small OSG revision and marking-to-market for FX). Looking into FY27, we

forecast organic growth of +7.3% and an EBIT margin of 7.5%, leading to EBIT of

$4.1bn (c.1% above company-compiled consensus).

Our thesis. We believe that Compass is a quality compounder at a discount, set to

compound earnings at a higher rate than consensus expects over the mid-term (we

forecast a c.9% EBIT CAGR over FY25-30E). With Compass trading at a discount to

the valuation implied by its returns profile and forward organic growth, we believe