NATO Summit 2026 Preview: Turning Pledges into Products

Research evidence excerpt

NATO Summit 2026 Preview: Turning Pledges into Products

Idea

July 3, 2026 06:45 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MAerospace & Defence | Europe Marie-Ange Riggio

Equity Analyst

NATO Summit 2026 Preview: Marie-Ange.Riggio@morganstanley.comRoss Law, CFA +44 20 7677-2003

Ross.Law@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-0560

Turning Pledges into Products Leonore Pele

Research Associate

Leonore.Pele@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2044

We see the NATO Summit as a key catalyst for European

Aerospace & Defence

defence with a constructive setup given modest expectations. Europe

We expect stronger EU commitments and reiteration of US calls Industry View Attractive

for defence spending to drive market confidence in the multi-

year cycle, which we think offers an attractive entry point.

Our View? With the European defence sector broadly flat ytd amid debates around

“Old vs New” defence exposure, fiscal constraints and ceasefire-related uncertainty,

we see the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara on 7-8 July as a key near-term

catalyst for the space. Investor expectations appear relatively low, which we believe

creates a constructive setup given we expect the summit to reinforce Europe’s

rearmament cycle, driven by two mutually reinforcing forces: sustained European

ambition and reiteration of US calls for commitment to defence spending. As a

result, we believe the main area of focus for investors should therefore be any

Summit outcome that confirms the structural nature of US positioning, progress

toward NATO’s 3.5% defence spending framework, European backfilling of US

capability reductions, or tangible procurement and co-production announcements.

Importantly, this reinforces our view that the European defence investment cycle is