June employment: A challenge to the reacceleration view

Research evidence excerpt

June employment: A challenge to the reacceleration view

Barclays | US Economics

downplay concerns amongst FOMC voters that a sustained tightening in labor market

conditions might be taking shape. This reinforces our baseline view that the FOMC will be in an

extended pause through the end of 2027. However, we continue to regard risks as skewed

toward hikes, especially if inflationary pressures prove to be stronger and more persistent than

expected.

In June, job gains were seen in both the private (+49k) and government (+8k) sectors, with the

former slowing considerably from prints over the prior three months. Within the private sector,

the majority of job gains were in services, specifically education and health services (+69k) and

professional and business services (+36k), which more than offset a decline in leisure and

hospitality services (-61k). Notably, the decline in leisure and hospitality appears, in part, to

have been affected by changing seasonal factors. Indeed, the SA estimate this year shows

significantly more weakness than in last year's June print (-2k), while the NSA change in

employment in leisure and hospitality in June (+373k) is almost identical to the one last year

(+378k). Gains were also registered in construction (+11k) and manufacturing (+3k), while jobs

in mining declined (-4k). Factory jobs increased slightly, but the run rate remains low, in line

with the recent strengthening in manufacturing PMIs and new orders. We think this likely

reflects the continuing normalization of employment in this sector following a period of over-

hiring, as we explained in Productivity: Strong headlines, softer reality.

On the government side, employment slowed (+8k) after having increased by 32k in May. Local