US Economic Notes: What you need to know for the week ahead

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Notes: What you need to know for the week ahead

Deutsche Bank

Research

Economics Date

US Economic Notes 2 July 2026

What you need to know for the week ahead

Brett Ryan

Commentary for Monday: Following last week’s labor data dump, this week’s Senior US Economist

economic calendar is relatively light with market participants likely to focus more +1-212-250-6294

on Fed communications (or lack thereof). Recapping the June employment

report, both headline (57k vs. 129k) and private (49k vs. 97k) payroll gains missed Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D.

Chief US Economist our below-consensus expectations. In addition, job gains were revised down by a +1-212-250-6161

net 74k over the prior two months. However, the unemployment rate dropped a

tenth to 4.2%, though this was partly due to an unusually sharp drop in labor force Justin Weidner

participation. Indeed, a 507k drop in household employment alongside a 213k Economist

+1-212-469-1679 decline in unemployment had the effect of lowering the labor force participation

rate by 30bps to 61.5%. What was most unusual about the decline in employment Amy Yang

was that it appeared to be concentrated amongst prime-age (25-54) workers, Economist

more specifically those aged 25-34. Indeed, LFP for prime age workers plunged +1-212-250-9959

by 60bps, which outside of the pandemic was the largest one-month decline since

January 1968.

In short, the June employment report was more noise than signal and Fed officials

will likely treat it accordingly. More importantly, the broader constellation of labor

market data points last week such as the May JOLTS, ADP, and jobless claims

continue to paint a picture of stability, albeit within a still uncomfortable

equilibrium between low hiring and low firing. For a more in-depth accounting of