Asia Local Markets Weekly: What might the second half hold?

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Local Markets Weekly: What might the second half hold?

Deutsche Bank

Research

Asia Fixed Income Date

North America 2 July 2026

Asia Local Markets

Weekly

What might the second half hold?

Sameer Goel

It’s been a tough first half of the year for Asia macro. In our Outlook at the beginning

Macro Strategist

of 2026, we had argued that a peak in tariff noise, ample policy intent/space, and +65-642-36973

stabilization in US-China relations would hopefully create conditions for a more

Goldilock-ish reflationary environment which Asia likes the best. We had also listed Perry Kojodjojo

Strategist

geopolitical adventurism as the key tail risk, and which indeed put paid to those

+852-2203-6153

hopes. With energy its key dependency, the region has struggled. To be sure, the

fallout on growth has been less severe than feared, mostly because of active fiscal Vaninder Singh, CFA

interjection in many economies. But it has come at the cost of significant Macro Strategist

underperformance vs other EM geographies; with the three worst equity (HK, +65-6423 8947

India, Indonesia) and local market (Korea, Indonesia, Thailand) returns in dollar Bryant Xu

terms all in Asia. The bright spots on the other hand have been a) tech propelled Strategist

North Asian equities; and b) RMB’s resilience. +65-6423 5558

Joey Chung

What might the second half hold? We believe 1) greater policy differentiation – as Strategist

the tech cycle drives divergence both between (North vs South) and within (K- +65-6423 8298

shaped) economies; 2) spotlight on China’s role as an anchor – policy support for Chen Kan

domestic demand and strategic focus on RMB internationalization; and 3) Macro Strategist

challenges in the form of energy scarring (stickiness in inflation), El Nino’s +852-2203-6159