Weekly #89: New solar efficiency standards effective from 1 Jan 2027

Research evidence excerpt

Weekly #89: New solar efficiency standards effective from 1 Jan 2027

2 July 2026

China Renewables & Utilities Sector

remain constructive on GCL Technology (3800.HK; BUY). Although near-term earnings are

likely to remain under pressure amid the industry downturn, we believe the company is

better positioned than peers due to the cost advantage of its granular silicon technology.

In addition, its expansion into battery materials and other growth initiatives could provide

earnings support over the medium term.

Cells and modules: Compared with polysilicon, we see the new module efficiency

standards as a potentially more meaningful catalyst for downstream cell and module

segments, particularly technology leaders such as LONGi (BC cells and modules) and Drinda

(TOPCon cells). According to BJX News, the final standards may raise the minimum

efficiency requirement for TOPCon modules to 23.2%, versus 22.4% in the September 2025

consultation draft. Based on mainstream module product data compiled by TaiyangNews

as of June 2026, only 8 of 20 commercially available TOPCon products currently meet the

new threshold. In our view, the new standards should favour higher-efficiency and larger-

scale manufacturers, potentially accelerating industry consolidation. According to InfoLink,

the global top four module suppliers accounted for approximately 58% of global module

shipments in 2025.

We also note that BC technology appears better positioned under the new standards, with

leading BC products likely to meet the requirements more comfortably than their TOPCon

peers. As the industry's leading BC player, LONGi could be a key beneficiary if the tighter

standards accelerate market share gains towards technology leaders, building on its c.12%

global module market share in 2025.