Netflix (NFLX US): Buy: Turbulence ahead, but still on track for destination

Research evidence excerpt

Netflix (NFLX US): Buy: Turbulence ahead, but still on track for destination

stimate views of NFLX’s top 52-WEEK PRICE (USD)

10 shows during the period were down c30% y-o-y) driven, we believe, by a weaker 140.00

reception to the recent slate of new releases, but we expect a recovery in 26Q3 and

see only modest downside risks to near-term forecasts. Nonetheless, we trim our 101.50

2026/27e revenue est. by c1%, now assuming a slower pace of net subscriber ads. 63.00

07/25 12/25 06/26

Target price: 104.00

But investor fears on M&A and META’s TV push overstated. We note an uptick in High: 129.72 Low: 70.90 Current: 71.40

M&A interest by NFLX, but see any moves as opportunistic plays for strategic value- Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

add assets, rather than reflecting weakness, and view the abandoned ROKU bid as

an encouraging sign of continued capital discipline. The Comcast split could reignite Mohammed Khallouf*, CFA

Global Tech Platforms Analyst

large-scale studio acquisition appetite, but is still early-stage. On competition, we are HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, DIFC

sceptical on prospects of large-scale adoption of Instagram for TV, seeing a lack of mohammed.khallouf@hsbc.com

+971 4 509 3337

market-fit and given a chequered track record for recent product launches by Meta.

Abhishek Shukla*, CFA

With tailwinds for NFLX in social media bans. Growing global push to restrict Senior Analyst, Technology

HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, DIFC

youth access to social media could prove a catalyst for outperformance, given 1 in 5 abhishek2.shukla@hsbc.com

NFLX viewers are under 18, a segment that spends +2hrs daily on social media. We +971 4 5093343

see scope for modest near-term gains but also a long-term impact on viewing habits Charlie Rothbarth*