LATAM Today: July 2, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

LATAM Today: July 2, 2026

Economics Research

2 July 2026 | 7:28AM EDT

RamosBRAZIL Alberto | +1(212)357-5768

alberto.ramos@gs.com

Data This Week: Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

ArmellaTomorrow: Industrial Production (May); we forecast a 0.3% mom sa print, adding Sergio | +1(212)357-9077

to the 0.7% mom sa Apr-26 reading. sergio.armella@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

TellezOur forecast factors in the observed performance of several coincident industrial Santiago | +1(212)855-0367

indicators including PMIs, auto production, road traffic of trucks and heavy vehicles, santiago.tellez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

and cardboard shipments.

AR

COLOMBIA

Data This Week:

Tomorrow: MPC Minutes (June); the central bank will publish the minutes to the

June MPC meeting. At the meeting, the MPC hiked the policy rate by 75bp to 12.0%

in a 4-1-2 vote split (one vote for a hold; two for a 50bp cut). The move was against

the Bloomberg consensus, though we note a wide range of survey forecasts between

0 and +100bp.

ST

MEXICO

Slight Improvement of 2026 Headline/Core Inflation Expectations; Unchanged Soft

2026/27 Growth Outlook

Bottom Line: Core 2026/27 inflation improved slightly (-4bp/-6bp to 3.84%/3.80%).

Headline 2026 inflation expectations improved (-15bp to 4.20%) and for 2027 remained

at 3.84%. Overall, headline inflation expectations remain significantly above the 3.0%

target and the central bank’s very optimistic 3.5%/3.0% forecasts for end-2026/27; core

inflation expectations are also significantly above the central bank’s forecasts. Equally of

concern are persistently unanchored medium- (2027-30) and long-term (2031-34)

inflation expectations. The outlook for 2026/27 remained soft and did not change.

A combination of still unanchored inflation expectations, lingering domestic and