1H26 trading update: Strong operational growth, normalised net income guidance downgraded

Research evidence excerpt

1H26 trading update: Strong operational growth, normalised net income guidance downgraded

Update

July 2, 2026 01:02 PM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+MOptasia | Europe James Starke, CFA

Equity Analyst

1H26 trading update: Strong James.Starke@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0814

Optasia (OPAJ.J, OPA SJ)

EEMEA - Banks & Fintech | South Africaoperational growth, normalised

Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

Price target ZAc 1,575net income guidance Shr price, close (Jul 1, 2026) ZAc 1,502

52-Week Range ZAc 2,360- 1,337

Mkt cap, curr (mn) US$1,131downgraded Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* US$33

EV, curr (mn)* US$1,151

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Reaction to earnings

Unchanged Meaningful upside Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Key Takeaways

Optasia guided to a strong 1H26: Revenue expected to grow +50-60%Y Adjusted

EBITDA +40-50%Y Normalized net income +30-40%Y

Reaffirmed FY26 guidance for Revenue growth ( >30%, MSe: +22%) and adjusted

EBITDA growth ( > 30%; MSe: +22%)

Downgraded Normalised net income growth guidance to +25-35%Y (MSe: +20%)

from '>40%' offered with FY25 results in Mar-25

Net-net positive with strong top line performance, although downgrades to

normalised net income guidance raise visibility risks

MFS remains the main growth driver and now accounts for c.72% of revenue, with

robust performance across Ghana, Pakistan, Indonesia and Congo-Brazzaville

offsetting the temporary ACS disruption in Nigeria.

Guidance reflecting a cautious assumption around the pace of Nigeria transaction-

volume recovery after airtime credit services resumed following the April

suspension.