Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts

Research evidence excerpt

Macro at a Glance: Latest views and forecasts

Economics Research

1 July 2026 | 4:56PM EDT

Download PDF | Download PowerPoint Allison Nathan

+1(212)357-7504 |

allison.nathan@gs.com

To subscribe to Macro at a Glance, visit the page and click “Follow.” Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Jenny Grimberg

Changes to flag this week: +1(212)934-0199 | jenny.grimberg@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

n Lowered our December 2026 year-over-year US core PCE inflation forecast to Ashley Rhodes

3.0% (from 3.2%) to reflect upcoming methodological changes and the details of +1(212)934-4876ashley.rhodes@gs.com|

the May core PCE report. Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Watching

n Globally, we expect real GDP growth to slow to 2.4% yoy in 2026 amid lingering

headwinds from the rise in energy prices from the Iran conflict. We expect global

core inflation to end the year at 2.9%, reflecting a fading tariff boost and further

normalization in shelter and wage inflation but a boost from energy price

passthrough.

n In the US, we expect moderate real GDP growth of 2.0% on a Q4/Q4 basis in

2026, reflecting lackluster consumer spending growth but a boost from the AI

boom via higher equity wealth as well as strong capex. We expect core PCE

inflation of 3.0% in December 2026 given the effects of tariffs, energy price

passthrough, and AI demand exaggerated by measurement issues, with it falling

closer to 2% in 2027. We expect the unemployment rate to end 2026 at 4.4%.

n We expect the Fed to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% this year,

though the hawkish June FOMC meeting raises the risk of interest rate hikes later

this year.

n In the Euro area, we expect real GDP growth to improve in 2H26 given lower

energy prices and easing financial conditions, for full-year real GDP growth of

0.5% yoy.