Peru: Upside Inflation Surprise in June on Higher Food Prices; Contained Core Inflation Pressures

Research evidence excerpt

Peru: Upside Inflation Surprise in June on Higher Food Prices; Contained Core Inflation Pressures

Economics Research

1 July 2026 | 12:55PM EDT

Peru: Upside Inflation Surprise in June on Higher Food Prices; Contained

Core Inflation Pressures

BOTTOM LINE: Lima headline inflation tracked at 0.23% in June, above the Santiago Tellez

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Bloomberg consensus for +0.06%. The reading’s composition was better, as the santiago.tellez@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

upside surprise was driven by higher food prices, seafood in particular. Core ex-food

& energy and services tracked at low 0.09% and 0.06% (GS estimate), respectively.

Year-over-year headline inflation firmed by 10bp to 4.01%, rising above the central

bank’s target band of 2% ± 1.0%. Core ex-food & energy inflation increased by 2bp

to 4.47% yoy, and services by another 2bp to 6.25%. Price pressures in non-energy

sensitive categories remain much more contained, with services ex-transport

tracking at a low 2.05% yoy (GS estimate). The decline in global energy prices in the

remainder of the year should imply fuel price deflation in Peru during the second half

of the year given fast passthrough to domestic pump prices. Folding in the upside

inflation surprise, we upgrade our end-2026 headline inflation forecast by 20bp to

3.9%, only 10bp above the central bank’s forecast.

Limited signs of energy passthrough to core ex-transport inflation, along with the

stabilization of core inflation measures after intense energy pressures in March-April,

are consistent with the updated MPC’s inflation outlook. We still expect the MPC to

maintain the wait-and-see stance at the July meeting, without adopting a clear

tightening bias yet, barring further inflation expectations de-anchoring or increased