Renault (RENA.PA): Revising estimates ahead of 1H26

Research evidence excerpt

Renault (RENA.PA): Revising estimates ahead of 1H26

Equity Research

1 July 2026 | 5:23PM BST

On a group pre-close call (June 30th), Renault reiterated FY26 guidance for an Christian Frenes

+44(20)7051-8641 |

operating margin of c.5.5% (consensus 5.0%, GSe 5.2%), with 2H margin > 1H (1H christian.frenes@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

consensus 5.0%, GSe 5.0%; 2H consensus 5.0%, GSe 5.4%). Meanwhile, 2H FCF is

Shivam Kotecha

expected to be higher than 1H (1H consensus €262mn, GSe €143mn; 2H consensus +1(332)245-7822 |

€485mn, GSe €755mn), in line with operating performance and WC seasonality. shivam.kotecha@gs.comGoldman Sachs India SPL

Furthermore, we expect MFS dividend inflows in 1H26 to be €250mn while FY Monika Mengting Liu, CFA

guidance remains at c.€350mn, as the company continues to move away from the +44(20)7051-7601Goldman Sachs International| monika.liu@gs.com

lump sum 1H payment mechanism. Robert Triulzi

+44(20)7552-2281 |

Mix/enrichment remains a drag on profitability despite revenue tailwinds from robert.triulzi@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

product mix: We expect Renault to report 1H group operating profit of €1.47bn

(Visible Alpha Consensus Data €1.49bn), resulting in a margin of 5.0% (consensus

5.0%), a step-down from 6.0% in 1H25. While product mix continues to impact Auto

revenues positively (GSe +2.3%), we estimate price/mix/enrichment to drag 1H

operating profit by -€134mn YoY given that 1) EV sales remain margin dilutive; 2)

Regulatory enrichment costs related to Euro 6e-bis emissions standard are unlikely

to be fully passed on to consumers, thereby impacting unit economics for models like

Dacia Duster and Sandero; and 3) geographic mix is expected to be negative (-0.3%

on top line) as international sales (incl.