What’s Top of Mind in Macro Research: Continued case for commodities, US jobs report, Fed independence

Research evidence excerpt

What’s Top of Mind in Macro Research: Continued case for commodities, US jobs report, Fed independence

Goldman Sachs What’s Top of Mind in Macro Research

The Strait of Hormuz has reopened following the US-Iran deal, though oil flows remain

volatile

Estimated oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz based on reported vessel count and average

volumes per vessel, mb/d (lhs), % of normal oil volumes (rhs)

Oil exports are estimated by taking an average of S&P and Kpler data on the daily number of oil tankers crossing the Strait of

Hormuz and scaling by the average oil volumes per vessel since March 1 from Kpler. Normal oil volumes are assumed to be 20

mb/d.

Source: Kpler, S&P Global Commodities at Sea, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

What else is on our radar?

n We’re focused on tomorrow’s US jobs report, which we estimate will show an

above-consensus 130k rise in nonfarm payrolls in June, reflecting a likely boost from

the World Cup and a consistent positive bias in initial June payroll prints. We expect

an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.3% (on a rounded basis) and a 0.2%

month-over-month rise in average hourly earnings, reflecting a stabilization in

continuing jobless claims and negative calendar effects, respectively.

n We’re also keeping an eye on Fed independence following this week’s Supreme Court

ruling that Fed Governor Lisa Cook can remain on the Board while her case proceeds

in lower courts. We view the ruling as more supportive of Fed independence than the

close vote split (5-4) implies, though some uncertainty around independence

remains given that the case on the merits will now proceed at the lower court level.

n We’re also watching 2Q26 earnings reporting season, which kicks off globally in

mid-July.