Remember Tariffs? Catalysts Ahead: Global Economic Briefing

Research evidence excerpt

Remember Tariffs? Catalysts Ahead: Global Economic Briefing

Global Idea

July 2, 2026 10:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc (DIFC Branch)MGlobal Economic Briefing Rajeev Sibal

Senior Global Economist

Remember Tariffs? Catalysts Rajeev.Sibal@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley & Co. LLC +971 4 709-7201

Mayank Phadke, CFA

EconomistAhead Mayank.Phadke@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1531

Seth B Carpenter

The tariff regime is shifting from temporary authority to a more Chief Global Economist

Seth.Carpenter@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0370

durable Section 301/232 framework. Legal risk is falling, but

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited

implementation risk remains. Tariff certainty should support Priyan Mody

capex, though reshoring remains narrow and AI-led. Economist

Priyan.Mody@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1855

Key Takeaways Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Arunima Sinha

The tariff regime is moving from temporary authority to a more durable Section Global Economist

Arunima.Sinha@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4125

301/232 framework.

Section 122 tariffs expire on July 24, and the July 7 Section 301 hearings are the

key procedural catalyst for replacing them with more durable tariff tools.

We estimate the statutory effective tariff rate settles around 9-10%, with less

dispersion than the original IEEPA regime.

The tariff structure is becoming more rules-based, but sector coverage, carve-

outs, deals, exemptions, refund timing, and import composition still matter.

Lower tariff uncertainty should support capex at the margin, but the evidence

still does not show broad reshoring, and USMCA resolution remains critical.

Exhibit 1: As the tariff regime becomes more legally durable, we see the

statutory tariff level converging toward 9-10% in coming months