Hormuz Fertilizer Disruption Eases, But Risks Remain

Research evidence excerpt

Hormuz Fertilizer Disruption Eases, But Risks Remain

Commodities Research

1 July 2026 | 1:02PM EDT

COMMODITY ANALYST

n While the immediate fertilizer disruption has eased following the reopening of Lina Thomas

+1(212)902-8376 | lina.thomas@gs.com

the Strait of Hormuz (through which one-third of global fertilizer trade flows), Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

risks remain: any renewed disruption to Strait flows could be consequential if it Samantha Dart

+1(212)357-9428 |

coincided with the Q3 procurement season for major nitrogen fertilizer samantha.dart@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

importers ahead of 2H planting, while phosphate affordability continues to Daan Struyven

pressure Brazilian soybean farmers. +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com

o Nitrogen fertilizers—critical for grains such as corn, wheat, and rice—

have an immediate and direct impact on yields and must be applied each

season, making timing critical and supply disruptions particularly

damaging. The Q2 disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz was

therefore relatively contained, as it occurred during a seasonal lull—after

Northern Hemisphere farmers had largely secured supply and before the

next procurement cycle began. Prices nonetheless rose by ~50% at the

onset of the closure of the Strait and have since retraced in June as flows

resumed amidst seasonally soft demand. However, this same inflexibility

makes nitrogen the key near‑term risk if disruptions were to re‑emerge in

Q3 when major importers procure for planting, including Brazil corn, India

rice and sugarcane, and EU winter wheat.

o Phosphate fertilizers, by contrast, can be drawn down from soil reserves

in the short term, limiting the immediate impact on yields, but sustained

under‑application depletes these reserves and gradually weakens soil