June US Sales Report Card: Halftime report - industry continues exceeding expectations

Research evidence excerpt

June US Sales Report Card: Halftime report - industry continues exceeding expectations

Equity Research

2 July 2026

U.S. Autos & Mobility

June US Sales Report Card:

Halftime report - industry

U.S. Autos & Mobilitycontinues exceeding expectations

NEUTRAL

Key takes: 1. June SAAR 16.7mn above cons ~16.1-16.5mn, U.S. Autos & Mobility

Dan Levystrong past 4 months likely quell fears of a weaker '26; 2. Our

15.9mn FY26 SAAR forecast implies ~15.8mn 2H SAAR, step +1dan.levy@barclays.com212 526 3212

down from 16mn 1H; 3. Volume/Pricing implies solid 2Q for BCI, US

F/GM; 4. Share/Mix a point to watch into 2H Josh Cho

+1 212 526 7156

joshua.cho@barclays.com

June SAAR of 16.7mn was above consensus estimates in the 16.1-16.5mn range. The result was BCI, US

encouraging, marking the best result in the past 11 months. Joshua Young

+1 212 526 3280

While the year started off slow, sales in the last several months have been strong, with YTD'26

jryoung@barclays.com

SAAR tracking at ~16.0mn; the last four months SAAR has averaged a robust 16.3mn. We believe BCI, US

concerns of weaker SAAR in '26 have largely been quelled, with pricing and volumes remaining

strong despite macro uncertainty since late-February. And alongside continued robust pricing

and healthy inventory, we believe the industry remains quite healthy.

More broadly, we reaffirm the key message from our recently published US SAAR Chartbook. On

the surface, people have asked about risk to the US auto market, with questions on

affordability, elevated delinquencies, and weak consumer sentiment. Yet we believe the data

shows an ongoing healthy industry, with steady volume, inline inventory, and better-than-

appreciated pricing.

What to expect in 2H

• Sales: We forecast a 15.9mn unit SAAR in 2026, down y/y from 16.3mn in '25.