July renewals 2026: Softer price, subdued demand

Research evidence excerpt

July renewals 2026: Softer price, subdued demand

Equity Research

2 July 2026

Global Reinsurance

July renewals 2026: Softer price,

subdued demand

We regard the renewal as incrementally negative: property re European Insurance

pricing accelerated downward, while demand seems to lag NEUTRAL

earlier management/broker comments. We estimate the NEUTRALNorth America Insurance/Non-Life

incremental negative impact to 2026 combined ratios at c. European Insurance

Ivan Bokhmat30bps.

+44 (0)20 7773 0417

ivan.bokhmat@barclays.com

Reinsurance pricing remains soft at mid-year renewals, with US prop cat pricing down Barclays, UK

20-25%. For a diversified reinsurer book this may translate into a c. -4% to -5% price

Claudia Gaspari

change - incrementally worsening our 2026 view of renewals by 30bps for large European +44 (0)20 3134 6039

reinsurers (Munich Re least affected, Swiss Re most). On top of this, T&C appear to claudia.gaspari@barclays.com

broaden in property. Barclays, UK

There appears to be less evidence of a 10% growth in demand, unlike what was mentioned North America Insurance/Non-Life

in reinsurer and broker comments over January-June renewals. Hence we regard the early Alex Scott, CFA

outcome as incrementally negative, although we still expect the gap between reinsurance +1 212 526 1561

supply and demand to substantially reduce by end 2027. alex.scott@barclays.com

BCI, US

An increased capital return may be a partial offset - 1H26 losses were benign at 40-50% Anling Chen

below average, capital buffers appear very strong with hurricane season outlook at below +1 212 526 5995

normal activity. Historically low activity years favor smaller reinsurers who would give anling.chen@barclays.com

capital back more opportunistically, while large peers perform relatively less strong.