Big Oils 2Q26 preview Screening for differentiated growth and margin upside. Early signs of capex inflection.

Research evidence excerpt

Big Oils 2Q26 preview Screening for differentiated growth and margin upside. Early signs of capex inflection.

Equity Research

1 July 2026 | 6:08AM CEST

BIG OILS

2Q26 preview: Screening for differentiated growth and margin upside.

Early signs of capex inflection.

With 2Q26 coming to an end, we publish our early take on the European Oils’ 2Q26 Michele Della Vigna, CFA

+39(02)8022-2242 |

earnings and 2026 outlook. Following recent progress in US-Iran negotiations and michele.dellavigna@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Milan

signs of a faster normalization of Persian Gulf exports, we align Brent and TTF branch

assumptions for 2026/27 with the forward curve: we now model $80/75 Brent for Quentin Marbach

2026/27 ($86.8/77.9/bbl before) and $14.2/11.6 TTF ($18/15.7/mcf before). We +44(20)7774-7644quentin.marbach@gs.com|

highlight the following: Goldman Sachs International

Yulia Bocharnikova

1) We are now largely in line with the forward curve and this puts us -7/-2% +44(20)7051-6299yulia.bocharnikova@gs.com|

below LSEG consensus for 2026/27, despite the strong 2Q26. The exceptions are Goldman Sachs International

Shell, Galp and Repsol where we are in line/above consensus: With our Brent and Anastasia+971(4)214-9908Shalaeva|

TTF assumptions now aligned to the forward curve following the recent decline in oil anastasia.shalaeva@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

prices, we cut 2026/27 EPS by 6%/3% on average for our European Oils coverage. Will Chen

While our 2Q26 estimates increase by 3% on average and sit broadly in line with +971(4)214-9942 | will.y.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs International

consensus (-2%), our 2026/27 estimates move to 7%/2% below consensus on

average. The exceptions are Repsol, Shell and Galp, where we remain in line/above