Americas Insurance

Research evidence excerpt

Americas Insurance

Equity Research

1 July 2026 | 5:00AM EDT

AMERICAS INSURANCE

2Q26 Preview: Softer Conditions Increasingly Apparent, While Bulls

Contemplate a Potential Bottom for Growth

P&C Insurers and brokers enter a challenging quarter for earnings revisions as we Robert Cox

+1(212)902-9813 | rob.cox@gs.com

expect commercial P&C pricing to fall 100-150bps, and we forecast growth misses Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

on average across each sub-sector, stemming from property pricing declines Jack Kendall

magnified by an unfavorable seasonal mix shift towards property/CAT policies. +1(212)902-0331Goldman Sachs & Co.| jack.kendall@gs.comLLC

Insurer margins and earnings should be resilient (mostly beats versus Consensus), Victoria Gong

however, supported by the earn-in of prior price increases, below average global +1(212)902-7254victoria.gong@gs.com|

catastrophe losses and manageable non-cat weather. Investor focus is likely to be Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

centered on 1) the magnitude and duration of softer insurance cycle conditions, 2)

capital deployment, 3) AI risks and opportunities, 4) insight into macroeconomic

conditions, and 5) stability of casualty reserves from recent accident years. Across

sub-sectors, we generally favor companies with some combination of lower exposure

to pricing conditions and idiosyncratic tailwinds. Heading into the quarter, we view

Buy rated AON as well as ARX/NP as best positioned within Brokers/Capital-Light,

while Buy rated HIG/WRB and Neutral rated ALL are best positioned within our

(re)insurer coverage.

Industry Overviews

Insurance Brokers/Capital-Light: 2Q presents a tough and uncertain setup for

organic growth with severe property pricing declines magnified by an unfavorable