June UK House Price Growth Indicator: no turn in sight

Research evidence excerpt

June UK House Price Growth Indicator: no turn in sight

House Builders

June UK House Price Growth Indicator: no

turn in sight

Industry Overview

Dipped down a bit further in June 01 July 2026

Our BofA UK House Price Growth Indicator (the ‘Indicator) dipped further to c.-0.95 in Equity

June, ending Q2 with the lowest point since November 2023. We notice an obvious EMEA

downgrade from -0.6 in February and so far no signs of recovery yet, which implies no Home Builders

near-term pricing inflection (for the better). The Indicator was mostly dragged by price Allison Sun >>

expectation and construction PMIs. See more details on page 2-3. Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

Exhibit 1: Our indicator is at the lowest level (-0.95) in June since November 2023 +44 20 7996 1052

Our indicator has a +0.84 correlation with nationwide UK house price change since May-1997 allison.sun@bofa.com

Vivek Vasudeo

2.0 30% Data Science Rsch Analyst

BofA UK House Price Growth Indicator MLI (UK)

+44 20 7995-3511

1.3 Nationwide UK House Price Monthly (y/y) 20% vivek.vasudeo@bofa.com

Arnaud Lehmann >>

0.5 Research Analyst

10% MLI (UK)

+44 20 7995 8302 -0.3 arnaud.lehmann@bofa.com

0%

-1.0

-10% Glossary -1.8

ASP: average selling price

-2.5 -20% HB: housebuilders

May-97 May-98 May-99 May-00 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 May-21 May-22 May-23 May-24 May-25 May-26 FTB: first time buyer NPPF: national planning policy

Source: BofA predictive analytics, Bank of England (BoE), Office for National Statistics (ONS), RICS, LSEG Data & Analytics (S&P), Haver framework

(GfK). See a complete list of components for our Indicator in Exhibit 12 and full methodology on page 6 PRS: private rented sector