GDP relief from lower oil prices and AI wave

Research evidence excerpt

GDP relief from lower oil prices and AI wave

Accessible version

Thailand Viewpoint

GDP relief from lower oil prices and AI

wave

Another GDP upgrade from lower energy prices 01 July 2026

We recently raised our 2026 GDP forecast from 1.9% to 2.1% to reflect (see report) GEM Economics

lower global oil prices after some relief in Middle East tensions and the positive regional Asia | Thailand

momentum from AI capex. The upgrade is led mainly by a better tourism outlook. Pipat Luengnaruemitchai

However, the growth impulse is narrow. Lower oil prices improve the external balance Emerging Asia Economist

and headline inflation, but the underlying demand remains subdued. Kiatnakin+66 2 305Phatra9221 Securities

pipat.luen@kkpfg.com

Tourism is the main beneficiary Kenneth Newell

The most direct beneficiary of lower oil prices is tourism. Our sensitivity analysis points EconomistKiatnakin Phatra Securities

to an upside in foreign arrivals and receipts. We forecast foreign tourist arrivals at kenneth.dona@kkpfg.com

32.7mn in 2026, up from 31.8mn previously but still -0.8% YoY. In 2027, we expect Burakorn Tipayasakulchai

foreign tourist arrivals of 34.9mn, up from 34.1mn. The improvement is expected to be EconomistKiatnakin Phatra Securities

most visible in long-haul markets, with European arrivals expected to recover during the burakorn.tipa@kkpfg.com

4Q26 high season. Tourism revenue is now expected to rise 1.4% YoY in 2026 versus a Araya Kanjanakoch

1.5% decline previously. EconomistKiatnakin Phatra Securities

araya.kanj@kkpfg.com

Limited consumption boost from lower oil prices

Lower oil prices should provide some relief to households, but the boost to domestic

ASEAN: Association of Southeastconsumption is likely to be modest. Weak household balance sheets and falling credit