Q2 preview: patiently awaiting Cobre Panamá decision

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 preview: patiently awaiting Cobre Panamá decision

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy First Quantum 1 July 2026

Company Update

North America

Canada

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 30 Jun 2026 (CAD) 38.74

FM.TO FM CN TOR FM

Price target 50.00

Industrials

52-week range 46.13 - 22.18

Metals & Mining

Q2 preview: patiently awaiting Cobre

Valuation & Risks Panamá decision

Cody Hayden

Q2 earnings due 28 July Research Analyst

FM is scheduled to report its Q2 results on 28 July (after market close). We forecast +44-20-754-13230

EBITDA of $509m, broadly in line with consensus (Fig 2) and up 56% QoQ, driven

Bastian Synagowitz

primarily by higher prices. Copper production of 100 kt is expected (in line with Research Analyst

consensus) and sales of 94 kt (consensus of 100 kt). We believe 2026 copper +41-44-227-3377

production guidance of 405-475 kt (including CP stockpiles) remains achievable,

Liam Fitzpatrick

and do not anticipate any guidance changes. Cost inflation will be in focus as FM

Research Analyst

previously flagged a potential $0.25/lb impact to cash costs; however, with easing

+44-20-754-13233

ME tensions and a reduction in diesel prices, we expect costs pressures to

moderate in H2 and full-year guidance of $2.15-2.40/lb to be maintained (DBe

$2.30/lb). We update for our latest commodity price deck and nudge our 2027 CP

cost estimates higher; our TP of CAD 50/sh remains unchanged. We recently

upgraded FM to Buy as we see attractive risk/reward into a potential CP restart

decision. We expect the potential restart of CP to also kickstart the next phase of

FM's equity story centred around its attractive growth options in Latam.

Within, we provide our Q2 earnings preview and a summary of company guidance.

Focus areas & catalysts for 2026+