Still waiting: Upgrading estimates, but still waiting for idiosyncratic catalysts to materialize

Research evidence excerpt

Still waiting: Upgrading estimates, but still waiting for idiosyncratic catalysts to materialize

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy Julius Baer 1 July 2026

Europe Reuters Bloomberg Rating Buy

Switzerland BAER.S BAER SW Price target (CHF) 76.00 Price at 30 Jun 26 69.80

52-week range 69.80 – 52.52

Banks

Banks Valuation & Risks

Still waiting

Benjamin Goy

Upgrading estimates, but still waiting for idiosyncratic catalysts to materialize Research Analyst

+49-69-910-31946 Following the mixed 4M26 update in May, Julius Baer shares have quickly

recovered and outperformed the sector as well as key peers. This reflects its Sharath Kumar

attractive business model and significant operating leverage to a supportive Research Analyst

capital markets backdrop in our view. Ahead of the 1H26 results on 21 July we +44-20-754-79527

raise our estimates meaningfully and also our target price to CHF76, though

largely due to positive AuM effects and supportive environment for client activity

in 1H26. However, we are still waiting for more idiosyncratic delivery including

Key changes

net new money acceleration and a conclusion of the FINMA enforcement action

Price target (CHF) 73 76 4%

that would like enable a resumption of share buybacks. These could trigger an

ongoing rerating from the currently attractive valuation of 10.3x 2027E EPS and Source: Deutsche Bank

8.5% 2027E total yield. Buy reiterated though we currently see stronger

idiosyncratic momentum at UBS.

1H26 likely overall a good half year for the industry, and Julius Baer

Disappointing net inflows and a cautious 2026 guidance overshadowed a strong

operating performance in the first four months of 2026 with a high gross margin

and a very low cost-income ratio. We expect top-line momentum has slowed a