Q2 preview: steady delivery ahead of Vicuña update

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 preview: steady delivery ahead of Vicuña update

Deutsche Bank

Research

North America Industry Date

Canada 1 July 2026

Lundin Mining

Industrials Company Update

Metals & Mining

Q2 preview: steady delivery ahead of

Vicuña update

Liam Fitzpatrick

Q2 earnings due 5 August Research Analyst

LUN is scheduled to report its Q2 results on 5 August (after market close). We +44-20-754-13233

forecast adjusted EBITDA of $658m, marginally ahead of consensus of $651m and

Bastian Synagowitz

up ~2% QoQ, primarily driven by higher realised prices while offset by higher costs. Research Analyst

We estimate copper production of 80 kt during the period alongside gold +41-44-227-3377

production of 34 koz. Overall, the base business is tracking to plan, and we do not

Cody Hayden

anticipate any changes to its 2026 copper and gold production guidance of 310-335

Research Analyst

kt and 134-149 koz, respectively. Cost inflation will be in focus, although LUN cost

+44-20-754-13230

guidance is based on a gold price someway below current spot prices, which saw

the company reduce its cash cost guidance at Chapada. Although group cost

guidance of $1.90-2.10/lb remains unchanged. While at Vicuña, an updated project

cost estimate remains a key focus ahead of a potential sanctioning decision later

this year. We made small tweaks to our estimates and updated for our latest

commodity price deck, which lifted our TP to CAD 36/sh and SEK 250/sh; we are

Hold-rated.

Within ,we provide our Q2 earnings preview and company guidance versus DB.

Focus areas & catalysts for 2026+

(1) At Vicuña (50:50 JV with BHP), LUN provided an update on the integrated

development path for the Josemaria and Filo del Sol deposits at its CMD on 17 June,

which follows the release of the technical study in February and recent 'RIGI'