JOLTS little changed, consumer confidence rises: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

Research evidence excerpt

JOLTS little changed, consumer confidence rises: Our daily analytics package and commentary on global inflation markets.

FICC Research

Interest Rates

1 July 2026

Inflation-Linked Daily

JOLTS little changed, consumer

confidence rises

Our daily analytics package and commentary on global Jonathan Hill, CFA

inflation markets. +1 212 526 3497

jonathan.hill@barclays.com

BCI, US

US CPI: May JOLTS job openings rose 9k; our economists highlight the increase in leisure and

Apostolos Apostolou

hospitality, and the drop in health services, as well as unchanged turnover. The consumer +1 212 526 5051

confidence index made gains in June, which as our economists note, was driven by stronger apostolos.apostolou@barclays.com

expectations of business activity, the labor market, and income. The S&P Cotality 20-City house BCI, US

price index and FHFA index both declined in April, providing signs of price relief in housing; if

sustained, this could spell potential increases in housing demand. The BEA's annual revision

could lower core PCE inflation, trimming Q1 momentum by 0.4-0.5% on a 3m saar basis, and

May y/y by 0.2%. Real yields sold off on a carry-adjusted basis on Monday: 2y +1.1bp, 5y +1.0bp,

10y +2.4bp, 30y +3.6bp. The breakeven curve rallied on a carry/RBOB-adjusted basis: 1y +1.1bp,

2y +1.1bp, 5y +2.8bp, 10y +1.9bp, 30y +0.9bp. Forward breakevens advanced: 1y1y +1.1bp, 2y3y

+3.6bp, 5y5y +1.4bp. Markets will be closed on Friday, July 3, in observance of the July 4 holiday,

and have an early close on Thursday, July 2. This week, we discussed a tactical long view,

expressed via 5y5y CPI swaps. We also examined the effect of AI on inflation.

EUR HICPx and FRCPIx: FRCPI, as well as German and Italian HICP, all printed below