Q2 preview: Garpenberg uncertainty continues. Hold

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 preview: Garpenberg uncertainty continues. Hold

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Hold Boliden AB 1 July 2026

Company Update

Europe

Sweden

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 30 Jun 2026 (SEK) 546.80

BOL.ST BOL SS STO BOL

Price Target (SEK) 640.00

Metals & Mining

Metals & Mining ADR ISIN 52-week range (SEK) 722.60297.00-

BDNNY US09752V1026

Q2 preview: Garpenberg uncertainty

Valuation & Risks continues. Hold

Liam Fitzpatrick

Q1 earnings due 21 July Research Analyst

We forecast Q2 EBIT ex PIR of SEK 3.5bn (Fig 2), slightly ahead of Bloomberg +44-20-754-13233

consensus (SEK 3.3bn), and net debt of SEK 16.6bn. Q2 will be an unpredictable set

Bastian Synagowitz

of numbers, due to the suspension of the Garpenberg mine, higher energy costs Research Analyst

and lower precious metal prices, while only partially offset by higher base metal and +41-44-227-3377

sulphuric acid prices. We downgraded the shares to Hold following the Garpenberg

Cody Hayden

suspension in March. We see value at current levels, although the shares will likely

Research Analyst

continue to struggle until there is greater clarity at Garpenberg. We update for our

+44-20-754-13230

latest commodity price deck, which lifts our TP to SEK 640 from SEK 620. Hold.

Within, we provide our Q2 earnings preview and a summary of latest company

guidance.

Garpenberg suspension and outlook

On 14 March, the Garpenberg mine experienced a rock fall event, which caused

significant damage to the Lappberget orebody (~70% of pre-incident production),

resulting in the temporary suspension of mining activities. The other two ore bodies

were largely unaffected. Production restarted in May and BOL expects production

to average 30% of pre-incident capacity in H2 and 60-65% in 2027. Management