Unpacking Expectations for Auvelity Commercialization in MDD & ADA

Research evidence excerpt

Unpacking Expectations for Auvelity Commercialization in MDD & ADA

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy Axsome Therapeutics 1 July 2026

Inc.

North America Reuters Bloomberg Rating Buy

United States AXSM.OQ AXSM US Price target (USD) 280.00 Price at 30 Jun 26 244.77

52-week range 255.17 – 100.39

Health Care

Biotechnology Valuation & Risks

Unpacking Expectations for Auvelity

Commercialization in MDD & ADA DavidResearchHoang,AnalystM.D., Ph.D.

+1-212-250-1184

Key Takeaways

Sam Beck We spoke with mgmt. ahead of the pre-2Q26 earnings quiet period to better Research Associate

understand the $8B peak sales estimate ($4B MDD/$4B ADA) being messaged +1-929-354-4311

by AXSM, as well as expectations for the early days of the ADA commercial

launch. Mgmt. noted they have not shared details on the shape of the launch Rosemary Li

curves for MDD or ADA, meaning how long it will take to reach those peak sales Research Associate

+1-347-985-6026

estimates. However, they did mention what they believe to be relevant comps,

such as Seroquel or Abilify, which were multi-indication blockbusters that peaked

after 8-14 years. Therefore, we are interpreting the company’s $8B forecast for

Auvelity as a long-term goal. Mgmt. also reminded us that Auvelity has exclusivity

out to 2038-39, which provides over a decade for sales to continue ramping. In

our investor conversations, we note there is a view that the $8B forecast is an

aspirational figure intended to attract attention from strategics, and communicate

that Auvelity’s TAM may be underestimated by the Street. We currently model

fully de-risked US peak sales for Auvelity of $1,396M MDD / $2,202M ADA /

$3,598M total and maintain a degree of conservatism in our estimates.